Customer Services - RTP Load Forecasting Function
Contents
The Load Forecasting function of RTP uses
transmission and distribution information, energy schedules,
weather, and past history to forecast loads on and
interval-by-interval basis. The forecast is used, in part, to
develop the Base RTP calculation.
Periodically, the Market Timer, (the RTO/ISO
market operations system or other market entity, depending upon the
market design) forecasts power system conditions for a specific
period, say the next 24 hours, based on energy schedules and prices
already submitted, ancillary services available, weather conditions,
day of the week, scheduled outage information from transmission and
distribution operations, and real-time information from transmission
and distribution operations, etc.
The Load Forecasting function uses historical
load forecasts databases and combines that information about the
energy generation schedules, transmission and distribution system
constraints and ancillary services bids to estimate the load for areas
within the system studied. Various load forecasting packages approach
the problem in different ways but all use these input and combine
weather, time of the year, day of the week and other correlated
variables to predict customer behavior for the specific settlement
periods being forecasted.
|
# |
Event
|
Name of
Process/Activity |
Description of
Process/Activity |
Information
Producer |
Information
Receiver |
Name of Info
Exchanged |
Additional
Notes |
IntelliGrid Architecture
Environments |
|
1.1 |
Market Timer initiates
the forecast power system condition |
|
Forecast power system
conditions for the next “settlement”
periods |
|
|
|
|
Intra-Control Center |
|
1.1.1 |
|
|
Load energy schedules
from Energy Schedule Database. |
Energy Schedule Database |
|
Energy schedules |
APIs needed between
databases and application |
Intra-Control Center |
|
1.1.2 |
|
|
Load Ancillary services
bids/offers from database |
Ancillary Services
Bids/Offers |
|
Ancillary Services Bids |
APIs needed between
databases and application |
Control Centers to ESPs |
|
1.1.3 |
|
|
Load weather forecasts
from Weather Service |
Weather Service
|
|
Weather forecasts |
Existing weather
protocol and weather format must be
used |
Intra-Control Center |
|
1.1.4 |
|
|
Load historical load data
a from historical load database |
Historic Load Database |
|
Historical load data |
APIs needed between
databases and application |
Intra-Control Center |
|
1.1.5 |
|
|
Load transmission system
information for outages and constraints |
Transmission System Data |
|
Transmission outage and
constraint data |
Inter utility
communications must be supported |
Intra-Control Center |
|
1.1.6 |
|
|
Load distribution system
information for outages and constraints |
Distribution System Data |
|
Distribution outage and
constraint data |
Inter utility
communications must be supported |
Intra-Control Center |
|
1.2 |
Completion of Load
Forecasting application |
|
Post results of load
forecast to load forecast database for
other applications to access (RTP base
rate calculator) |
Load Forecaster |
Forecast Loads |
Load Forecast |
APIs needed between
databases and application |
Control Centers to ESPs |
