Customer Services - Wind Forecasting Function

Contents

• Narrative
• Steps

Narrative

Wind generation is primarily an energy resource, and cannot dispatched like conventional generation.  In more traditional utility operations, predictions of system load for the next hour, day, week, etc. are essential for deploying supply resources such as total costs are minimized while maintaining system reliability and security. Incremental costs due to the uncertainty in the timing and quantity of energy delivery from wind generation facilities in operational time frames can be reduced with better short-term wind generation forecasts and appropriate use of those predictions by control area operators and power markets in scheduling functions and real-time operating practices. 

In situations where resource decisions are made by according to various market signals, prediction of wind generation will be important for those who operate the markets and are charged with responsibility for system security and reliability. 

Whether by direct action of an operating entity or in response to market signals, electric supply resources in an electric power control area must be managed, scheduled, and operated to provide for the desired levels of system reliability and security.  Furthermore, to minimize the overall cost of electricity to consumers in the control area, the supply resources must be deployed in a manner that leads to the lowest total production cost.  Meeting these objectives and at the same time honoring the myriad constraints on individual generating units and resulting from contractual obligations requires the ability to continually assess the present state of the system and predict probable states hours or days in advance. 

Uncertainty in the operational planning time frame can lead to defensive operating strategies and higher costs.  Wind generation can only increase the uncertainty in the short-term forecasts utilized to commit and schedule generation, and may lead to higher operating costs.  In real-time operation, additional reserves might be allocated to cover the uncertainty in the hours-ahead time frame, again with higher costs. 

In control areas with multiple wind generation facilities, forecasts must be generated for each plant on schedules appropriate for real-time management of the control area as well as short-term operational planning activities such as unit commitment or reliability monitoring.  Given that the plants in a single control area are exposed to the same general meteorological conditions, a wider geographical perspective on wind resource conditions for forecasting is essential.  As a result, the stakeholder groups involved in wide-area wind generation forecasting are defined as follows:

• Operators of the individual wind plants

• Control area personnel responsible for “real-time” operations, i.e. within the hour and possibly for several hours ahead

• Control area personnel, which might include the power marketing functions, responsible for short-term planning activities, including unit commitment and scheduling, interchange scheduling, power purchases and sales, etc.

• Control area or RTO personnel responsible for monitoring system security, where generation dispatch decisions are made for technical reasons related to system integrity rather than economics

• A third party that produces forecasts of wind conditions and possibly wind generation for plants in the control area.

Individual wind plant operator

• Provides information on turbine availability and other plant status indications to forecasting entity

• Provides local meteorological information from plant sensors to forecasting entity

• Receives plant forecast information from forecasting entity

Real-time operators

• Receives wind generation forecast information from forecasting entity and utilizes for planning on an hours-ahead basis

• Receives notification from individual wind plant operators as to planned changes in status or availability

• Notifies individual plant operators of system conditions that may require certain actions on the part of the wind generation facility

Power Marketer

• Receives wind generation forecasts from forecasting entity to make decisions about generating unit commitment and scheduling

Reliability and security monitors (RTO)

• Utilizes short-term wind generation forecast information to assess future system security and make decisions regarding remedial actions

Forecasting entity

• Collects meteorological information from public and private sensors

• Executes regional meteorological model to forecast wind speed for hours and days ahead

• Collects information from individual plant operators necessary to forecast production for plant

• Collects information from reliability monitors

• Develops wind generation forecast for individual plants and for aggregate wind generation in control area on the basis of wind plant information and wind speed forecasts

• Provides wind generation forecast to individual wind plant operators, real-time system operators, power marketers and reliability and security monitors (RTO)

 

 

Steps